My web talk to DU teachers - about Trump
1. First caveat – whatever I say, are based on STP – standard temperature pressure, as we say in science experiments in the laboratories. Under Trump2.0, you never know when the temperature or pressure will change dramatically depending on which side of the bed, Trump wakes up in the morning, with a new thought.
2. We will have noted that this Trump era has begun with many U turns, failure of bluster and bowing to the deep state after winning the election on the promise of finishing it. Strongest evidence of this U-turn is his relations with Bharat and Pakistan. He had called Pakistan the global hub of terrorism worth eliminating. Pakistan was in the dustbin of foreign offices of President of USA. But, as soon as his family got their crypto-currency tie up with a Pakistani firm, he remembered that Pakistan has been at the forefront of fight against Jihadis and terrorism. Forgetting that Osama was living next door to military HQ and killed by US Marines without as much as ‘by your permission’. He realised that he cannot destroy Deep State that he vowed to do during elections so he fell in line with that very deep state.
3. Things are changing so fast that stopped revisiting my draft of this lecture much in advance as every day is a new drama, where the desperate peace maker even goes on to use ‘F’ word!
4. Yes, one thing is sure world politics is going to change in coming years, not because of Trump but despite Trump due to forces unleashed by USA decades back by Nixon nudged by deep state. - Dismantling of Communist power, and supporting China's rise. We know that since last few decades, Presidents have lost power to the deeply embedded interests in the dark corridors of power of Pentagon, CIA, FBI etc. I haven’t studied enough to pin-point the era when Presidents kow towed to the entrenched powers. But, probably, this was around the time of Nixon.
5. The cold war had two sides in bipolar world - both nearly matching in military power but not in economic power. Now in not so cold war - the other contending power, namely China, is not economically weak; it controls supply chains and is practically the global factory. In addition, it is a strong military power too.
6. Today world seems to be at war with itself. Ukraine - Russia, a war forced down the throat of two countries by USA controlled NATO. Unfortunately, Trump inherited it Now he is unable to stop it, but if he were there in previous term, he might have avoided it. He did try to weaken NATO but failed. Last week NATO countries decided to raise their defence budget by 5%. 5% of multi-million dollar budgets.
7. Second war – Hamas-Israel, was fuelled by Islamic regimes who are still unable to reconcile with a Jew state. Third that began now between Israel and Iran is basically a fight for Jews survival plus American urge to control nuclear armaments. While I was writing this down it became America’s war too. People who understand Islam, know that this cease fire is another comma or at the most a semi colon, not the end of the war. Only a few of Islamic countries understood that they cannot finish Jews and they too have right to exist. They signed peace deal with Israel – Israel, Jordan, Syria – the front of the Arab world that faces Israel on the borders. Saudi Arabia too would have signed a historic peace deal that actually Trump deserved when he got a détente between 1400 year old animosity Islam and Jews. Unfortunately, the Islamists prevailed and sabotaged this historic accord. I still hope it will happen. So, Islamic world has to give up its Quranic teaching that Jews must be finished – a Tall order for peace. They must realise they cannot finish Israel.
8. Add to this - civil wars in African and Arab countries. Nearly all of them are a result of colonial past - creation of countries in Arabic region and in African countries without any logic. There are religious wars in Islamic countries in Africa, Mena ( Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan Pakistan, Nigeria, Sudan, Kenya etc). Then there are looming civil wars in street of Europe by Islamist immigrants. In African continent too nearly all the conflicts are between Islamst vs Christian factions.
9. Many nations have been destroyed for the sake of controlling the sources of energy – namely - oil, and other natural resources. Some got destroyed for daring to go against Dollar economy – think of Libya. Think of Latin American countries – Chile, Mexico and so on for seizing natural resources. U.S. military interventions in Latin America have often involved occupation, political manipulation, and economic control—typically justified under the pretext of strategic concerns and/or democratisation. It is a moot point that they all end up as dictatorships. Some of the most notable examples include interventions in Haiti, Cuba, and Nicaragua, Guatemala, Panama, Argentina, Brazil, and latest – Venezuela. One good thing about Trump was his willingness to get USA out of these conflict zones, but he did not succeed as he did not get the second term in continuity.
Before we forget – there was once an Arab Springs – nay many springs. All led to downfall of some better non-Jihadi type of Islamic governments replaced by hard core Islamist govts. As we know they were not spontaneous but seeded by the Deep State.
Remember, Modi ji is in the cross-hair of Big Brother international players. Soros has openly boasted his Open Society Foundation claims on its website that it has spent over $18 billion on its mission to dislodge Modi and other non-Left governments.
10. However, USA cannot do to China, even Russia what it did to Libya. For that matter it couldn't even bully China and Russia. But we have to deal with the neighborhood bully - China on our north and in the eastern world.
11. Have any of these developments been influenced or controlled by a USA president or have they been dictated by what was earlier called CIA & MNCs), big investment giants - now this combined might fuelled by NGOs, Think Tanks? To me, all these combined make the deep state?
12. We are talking of Trump influencing or trying to influence the world, and position of Bharat in this frightening new world. Frightening new world, because there are too many fires, the earlier global policeman is no more that strong, nor unchallenged. There is the counter weight of wily China. The uni-polar world did not last long enough, mainly due to short term goals of the deep state and the international forces led by amoral investment giants, arms and pharma lobby and NGOs of various shades; or very very long term sinister goals of these very forces. Covid is a puzzle, the tricky games of pharma industry are still not deciphered.
13. And because Trump too seemed to have lost his vigour of fighting Deep state, and his inability to influence his friends like Putin, or bully tiny leaders like Zelenskey, or force Iran on to the negotiation table, from where he had pushed them out in his first stint shows that he doesn't have the polish or skills required of a USA Presidency to achieve American goals.
14. Befriending terror exporting state like Pakistan after calling them all sort of names shows that Deep state is back. His exertions have weakened USA-Europe relations. European part of Nato is no more in a mood to remain subservient to USA interests and ready to break out of this foreign policy slavery.
15. UN - the once famed taking shop is losing its power due to Trump refusing to fund it. All offices of international bodies are up for sale, and China and Islamic world is willing to buy. You can witness this buy-out from their pronouncements. Their writ doesn’t run beyond the UN building. You have Human Rights bodies headed by the worst perpetrators of human rights violation. Modi ji has been leading a call of Global South for reforms but the veto carrying counties won’t allow this democratisation of UN and its allied bodies.
16. So where does this leave Trump, whose biggest quality is his inconsistency? Even otherwise as Kissinger is often quoted - it's dangerous to be an enemy of America, but more dangerous to be a friend of America. Bharat has seen both its animosity (1971, Pokhran 1 and 2) and friendship (1950 -UNSC, 1962, Kargil). However, recent actions of Trump re tariffs and Pakistan overtures show that things can go worse. No USA President had openly sided or befriended Pakistan so openly since 9/11. None wants to be seen with a terror multiplier.
17. We know that USA is self-centred, never worried about the world beyond the Pacific. But now we have a President who cannot see beyond his commercial interests & business. Foreign policy is always transactional, but not literally commercial transactions, it is also based on long term national interests.
18. To his credit, Modi govt has been comfortable with every President because his relations are not personal but guided by self-interest of Bharat.
19. Trump bullies an Apple not to install plants in Bharat, despite knowing that moving out of China is in USA interest, without realising that manufacturing high quality products at low cost requires more planning & policy. You know you are dealing with a President who is in a hurry for MAGA, a good idea. But he cannot figure out how to go about it.
20. We can understand tough negotiations over tariffs, and urgency of MAGA, but he fails to understand importance of cutting down wasteful expenditure & drops his main strategist or is made to drop him. So, is he a strong President with weak implementation skills or a President who has right idea but wrong team or a team he doesn't listen to?
21. USA has no war at home. After Vietnam defeat its army has lost stomach to fight others' wars in foreign lands. The hurry with which it withdrew from Afghanistan shows this weakness. Remote wars like computer games can take you so far and no further. Afghanistan showed this limitation. Yet, defence industry is the only industry that gets USA biggest chunk of huge revenues along with most profiteering Pharma. So its arms lobby loves wars. A Ukraine or a Pakistan is good for its health. Warms must never end, for them.
22. Fund houses or investment funds are global citizens. They are no more USA centred, but they are proverbial big brother who can work from anywhere in the interest of the socalled ‘global citizen’.
23. As far as Bharat is concerned, recent moves by the deep state and his acquiescence to it are worrying. We all know USA wants a strong Bharat to counter China but not so strong that will take independent decisions; Not listen to USA orders. We all know that Pakistan has been pivot of USA hold over Central Asia and MENA region. Not something we don't know. But to have business interest tie-ups personally is not something we remember since a long time. It makes the right noises but would like Bharat to be pinned down on West and Eastern sides.
24. So, how is Trump era going to impact Bharat? I am not talking about the world as we have seen above earlier that there are too many fires, many lit by USA, none fortunately lit by Trump except most dangerous Iran Israel war.
25. For Bharat, I think, what Modi ji is doing is the right transactional approach, one transaction at a time, keeping Bharat’s self-interest paramount. We have shown that we are a big economy and big consumer market whom world needs including USA. We have shown the world that we are not spoiling for a fight with anyone but will be firm where national interest is concerned. We have earned respect. We have earned the leadership of global south by treating them with respect and helping them wherever we can. We have shown we can withstand economic sanctions. We have used our diaspora strength well, without being parochial.
26. If we are not running a tight ship and with all guards up, we can be deeply hurt by wild waves of Trump genius. Recent example of Modi ji declining Trump invite to drop in at White House while returning from G7 is one such example. We are dealing with a well-meaning President, who lacks clear and consistent long term vision and also slowly bowing to deep state pressure.
27. Probably, he is good for USA. His gamble on tariffs is slowly paying out. China has negotiated well. America probably cannot live without Chinese supplies – from tourist souvenirs to engineering hardware. But he is a bit risky for the world. I always commended him for his refusal to be drawn into any new war, historic detente between Islams HQ Saudi Arabia and Jewish state Israel. But second term lacks that will or vision. Perhaps some international recognition of his first term would have been profitable for the world. We have seen that he is hungry for recognition as a statesman and a leader who can bring peace and leave a better world behind. He jumped into Iran war, at great risk to middle east stability. We don’t know whether he succeeded or not in stopping the nuclear programme of Iran. It may be a temporary setback of a few months; not what he boasted about. If he fails to stop it for some years, we are staring at a serious issue in coming years.
28. Another possibility is Bharat may not become new supply chain hub or big manufacturing centre easily if Trump tries Apple tricks on others. So, Bharat will have to look at other options for economic growth via manufacturing could be one likely impact. Some export hits due to tariff wars could also slow down our growth. Indigenisation of defence industry and space is one critical step to overcome this possible challenge.
29. Overall, contrary to earlier misgivings that Trump would be ultimately good except for some hiccups in trade, it seems that he will be watched very carefully and with caution as noted above citing Modi ji zeroing on to this problem quickly. Issue of US China relationship is that Trump only looks at trade not strategic issues of power equation.
On the other hand, Indo US partnership is natural but has to be partnership of equals.
30. Going off to a tangential issue, I would like to stress that it is very important from having long term mutually beneficial relations we require to invest heavily in soft power - the persuasive power of moulding opinions. This is very critical, whether we have a Trump or an Obama or a Vivek tomorrow. That is the backroom politics of academics, and Think Tanks even NGOs. Not just Yoga or Ayurveda. Those are just feel-good facets of soft-skill.
31. USA, hence, global world views were moulded by think tanks born out of western scholarship, funded by Church and later USA industrial giants. As MNC giants became global with global interests they no more focused on American academia. Church no more had funds for academia, as its limited funds were focused on saving the flock and harvesting more souls. This is when China and Islamic world entered the scene. China used funds to set up academic seats within USA universities and influence the world view positively about China and its civilisation. Islamic countries chose an easier route as they didn't have civilisational depth that China had. They simply bought off academics and research scholars to write what suited their agenda; create theories that sell their ideologies. They successfully hijacked or seeded themselves into western movements to show themselves as oppressed groups. They were able to present western or white church as oppressors, and Hindus and Jews being exploiters. In a very short period, they have been able to successfully create this theory of being fashionably oppressed groups while whitewashing their record as human rights violators, exploiters of women; joining highly volatile and violent groups even as they openly violate every society that allowed it refuge. Their popularity among LGBT is a laughable case in point.
32. Unfortunately, we have not yet caught into this game, nor grasped the importance of this approach. Indians do invest in academics in USA but not for ideological reasons but fulfil their urge to gain recognition from whites. I will not speak of their investments in academia in USA, as it is a huge subject by itself, reflecting more on us as a society than on others.
33. Bharatiya governments have let our intellectual prowess in different fields to shine by individual efforts. I can say that Indira Gandhi did offer help to the artists in this exercise in projection of our fine arts heritage. But these are feel good events, not leaving any long term impact. Modi ji has been able to wrest back Yoga from the west. Our agencies and individuals have been able to score individual victories by securing our IP rights. But on a larger scale there is no overarching grand vision of showcasing or projecting Bharatiya knowledge and our world view to the global stage and create bodies that can influence USA policies.
34. Despite all the weaknesses, world narrative is set by institutions there. We have large number of respected academics but no Bharatiya academic vision, forget think tanks. These are mostly Americanised Indian intellectuals. Those with Bharatiya roots are a small number, not enough to set an agenda. There is no government initiative in this field. This is the need of the hour. We have reached that stage where we must think beyond International Yoga Day. Or, fighting individual cases of saving our IPRs. I will just give an example. When I interacted with the Indian embassy in Washington, I suggested that we can at least see to it that the books offering Bharatiya perspective be made available in American campuses. This idea was liked by the departmental officer, and he said this is surely doable. I was requested to provide a list of such books, which I did. Point is, even such simple initiatives are not taken by our foreign offices.
If we are able to create such a base, then it won't matter who wins elections in USA. We are not a world power, nor is that our goal. But if we aspire to be Vishwa Guru who will influence the world positively, we need to change the way we think about ourselves. We need to change the way the world looks at us and thinks about us as a civilization and a nation. In our terminology - a civilisational nation.
I will end by quoting Ashley Tellis, a very important voice in USA - Take Trump seriously but not literally.
Let us have a longer view of the horizon.
Ratan Sharda
28-06-2025
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